Will mortgage rates go down in 2023?
Average U.S. rates for both 30-year and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages began steadily dropping in November 2023, and that trend continued into January 2024. Rates will likely keep going down throughout the rest of the year, especially since the Fed projected that it will lower the federal funds rate three times in 2024.
After rising sharply through October 2023, mortgage rates have trended back down. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage was 6.84 percent as of Jan. 31, according to Bankrate's survey. This represents a welcome drop from 8.01 percent on Oct. 25.
Sure, mortgage rates could fall to 3% at some point, but chances are that's not going to happen anytime soon. Moreover, waiting for rates to drop before you buy your home could backfire. Instead, consider buying your house now and refinancing your mortgage when rates improve.
Mortgage rates in 2024: FAQs
Mortgage rates are likely to trend down in 2024. Depending on which forecast you look at for housing market predictions in 2024, 30-year mortgage rates could end up somewhere between 5.8% and 6.1% by the end of the year.
The current mortgage interest rates forecast is for rates to continue going down. After spiking to 7.79% last October, rates finally began to drop — managing a 1.19 percentage point decline in just 12 weeks. While there are no guarantees, our market expert recommends cautious optimism as we move through 2024.
As a baseline scenario, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the low-6% range through the end of 2024, dipping into high-5% territory by early 2025. Here's where mortgage rates are headed for the rest of the year and how that will impact the housing market as a whole.
In its November 2023 Mortgage Finance Forecast, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) anticipates 30-year rates starting in 2024 at 7.1% and gradually declining to 6.1% at the close of the year before dipping as low as 5.5% in 2025.
But the signs seem to be that interest rates may have peaked for this cycle. Many experts predict interest rates will remain at their current level for most of 2024. This may mean that mortgage rates stay at or about the same level as now for many months before possibly starting to fall towards the end of 2024.
In today's market, a good mortgage interest rate can fall in the mid-6% range, depending on several factors, such as the type of mortgage, loan term, and individual financial circ*mstances. To understand what a favorable mortgage rate looks like for you, get quotes from a few different lenders and compare them.
Two-year fixed mortgage rates are expected to fall from 5.03pc on average to 4.47pc in February, according to Capital Economics. They are forecast to fall below 4pc on average in September and end the year at 3.68pc. Two and five year fixes are expected to stabilise at 3.31pc and 3.6pc in June 2025 respectively.
How high could mortgage rates go by 2025?
Mortgage rates are going to stay above 6% through 2025, according to estimates from Goldman Sachs. Goldman said the decline in mortgage rates should offer marginal improvements in housing affordability. The average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.62% last week after hitting a cycle-high of 7.8%.
The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.
| Source | Projected 30-year mortgage rate (by end of 2024) |
|---|---|
| Mortgage Bankers Association | 6.1% |
| Fannie Mae | 5.8% |
| Realtor.com | 6.5% |
| Redfin | 6.6% |
Conversely, an increase in the supply of credit will reduce interest rates while a decrease in the supply of credit will increase them. An increase in the amount of money made available to borrowers increases the supply of credit. For example, when you open a bank account, you are lending money to the bank.
Legally, there isn't a limit on how many times you can refinance your home loan. However, mortgage lenders do have a few mortgage refinance requirements you'll need to meet each time you apply for a loan, and some special considerations are important to note if you want a cash-out refinance.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) predicts rates will drop to 6.3 percent by the end of 2023. Haymore, of TD Bank, sees little change in rates in the near future. “I think over the remainder of the year, we'll be within a quarter point of where we are now,” says Haymore. “I don't think we'll see 8 percent.”
The average 30-year fixed rate reached an all-time record low of 2.65% in January 2021 before surging to 7.79% in October 2023, according to Freddie Mac.
You might want to pay points to get a lower interest rate if you have enough money upfront and want to save over the life of the loan. You might instead consider buying lender credits if you don't have much money to pay upfront and want to save on monthly costs.
| Product | Interest rate | APR |
|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixed-rate | 6.834% | 6.914% |
| 20-year fixed-rate | 6.652% | 6.751% |
| 15-year fixed-rate | 5.964% | 6.097% |
| 10-year fixed-rate | 5.906% | 6.096% |
While the shift in monetary policy has spurred a sharp drop mortgage rates this quarter, Fannie Mae noted a limit to how far these rates will fall: it projects that the 30-year fixed rate will average 6.7% in 2024, before falling to 6.2% in 2025.
How high will mortgage interest rates go in 2023?
| New Purchase Loan Type | 2023 Low Average | 2023 High Average |
|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixed | 6.11% | 8.45% |
| FHA 30-year fixed | 6.03% | 8.30% |
| 15-year fixed | 5.40% | 7.52% |
| Jumbo 30-year fixed | 5.23% | 7.59% |
| Product | Interest Rate | APR |
|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed Rate | 7.28% | 7.29% |
| 20-Year Fixed Rate | 7.08% | 7.10% |
| 15-Year Fixed Rate | 6.68% | 6.71% |
| 10-Year Fixed Rate | 6.61% | 6.65% |
Because higher interest rates mean higher borrowing costs, people will eventually start spending less. The demand for goods and services will then drop, which will cause inflation to fall. Similarly, to combat the rising inflation in 2022, the Fed has been increasing rates throughout the year.
When inflation is running high, the Fed raises those short-term rates to slow the economy and reduce pressure on prices. But higher interest rates make it more expensive for banks to borrow, so they raise their rates on consumer loans, including mortgages, to compensate.
The average interest rate on typical 30-year mortgages has stayed between 6% and 7% for the last several months, roughly double what it was at the end of 2021 and early 2022. The median home price in January was $383,000, which is about 1.5% higher than a year earlier.
